MODEL VERDICT
FLEX LNG Ltd. (FLNG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $32.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $30.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $30.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $30.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $29.24 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $16.23 | -49.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $9.55 | -70.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $17.58 | -45.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $24.22 | -25.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $9.66 | -70.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $2.91 | -91.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $23.42 | -27.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $1.69 | -94.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $20.66 | -36.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $17.48 | -45.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $24.22 | -25.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.26 | -43.5% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (22%) | $32 | $35 | $39 | $42 | $46 |
| Conservative (36%) | $36 | $40 | $43 | $47 | $51 |
| Base Case (55.9%) | $41 | $45 | $49 | $54 | $58 |
| Bull Case (75%) | $46 | $51 | $56 | $61 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.75 | 13.09 | 7.73 | 58.33 | 18.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.75 | 12.98 | 11.69 | 35.42 | 8.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.72 | 10.89 | 9.56 | 15.08 | 2.31 |
| P/FCF | 8.53 | 8.67 | 6.78 | 10.01 | 1.35 |
| P/FFO | 8.29 | 8.11 | 5.40 | 12.93 | 2.51 |
| P/TBV | 1.41 | 1.54 | 0.57 | 1.93 | 0.56 |
| P/AFFO | 7.08 | 6.72 | 6.42 | 8.11 | 0.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.41 | 1.54 | 0.57 | 1.93 | 0.56 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.01 | 3.88 | 2.89 | 5.03 | 0.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FLNG's fair value at $18.26 vs the current price of $32.32, implying -43.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.95 (P10) to $22.97 (P90), with a median of $18.26.
FLNG's current P/E of 23.4x compares to the industry median of 12.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +83.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover FLNG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $24.00 (range: $24.00 — $24.00), implying -25.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FLNG trades at the 7220th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FLNG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (55.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13890.0% to approximately $77. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.