MODEL VERDICT
Flexsteel Industries, Inc. (FLXS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $56.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $57.57 | Pending | -21.6% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $56.30 | Pending | -13.9% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $40.12 | Scaled in | +20.9% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $42.42 | Scaled in | +8.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $46.73 | -17.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $49.44 | -12.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $61.07 | +8.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $75.89 | +34.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $63.52 | +12.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $95.38 | +69.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $87.33 | +54.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $65.53 | +16.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $60.46 | +7.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $81.17 | +43.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.24 | +17.5% | 100% | 83 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $44 | $52 | $59 | $66 | $74 |
| Conservative (7%) | $45 | $53 | $60 | $68 | $76 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $47 | $55 | $62 | $70 | $78 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $48 | $56 | $64 | $73 | $81 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.03 | 11.12 | 6.88 | 55.00 | 20.34 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.54 | 18.80 | 7.40 | 26.13 | 8.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.97 | 13.14 | 6.40 | 17.34 | 4.62 |
| P/FCF | 13.31 | 11.06 | 5.58 | 24.19 | 8.07 |
| P/FFO | 11.33 | 9.42 | 5.25 | 20.65 | 6.20 |
| P/TBV | 1.19 | 1.19 | 0.72 | 1.99 | 0.49 |
| P/AFFO | 17.61 | 10.91 | 6.97 | 31.58 | 12.47 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.19 | 1.19 | 0.72 | 1.99 | 0.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.18 | 0.76 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates FLXS's fair value at $66.24 vs the current price of $56.39, implying +17.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $57.08 (P10) to $75.03 (P90), with a median of $65.61.
FLXS's current P/E of 15.9x compares to the industry median of 17.2x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -7.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.0x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
No analyst coverage data is available for FLXS.
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FLXS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (0.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9180.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.