MODEL VERDICT
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $23.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $23.06 | Pending | +3.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $40.44 | +72.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $55.73 | +137.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $33.38 | +42.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $30.01 | +27.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $9.54 | -59.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $33.71 | +43.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $35.79 | +52.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $36.59 | +56.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.57 | +64.4% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $17 | $21 | $24 | $27 |
| Conservative (5%) | $14 | $18 | $21 | $25 | $28 |
| Base Case (5.1%) | $14 | $18 | $21 | $25 | $28 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $14 | $18 | $22 | $25 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.15 | 27.28 | 14.18 | 39.11 | 7.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.74 | 19.52 | 14.01 | 25.90 | 4.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.85 | 9.28 | 7.05 | 14.35 | 2.84 |
| P/FCF | 14.16 | 12.44 | 6.29 | 23.26 | 7.27 |
| P/FFO | 9.07 | 7.63 | 5.43 | 14.67 | 3.81 |
| P/AFFO | 14.64 | 15.07 | 7.80 | 21.88 | 6.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.72 | 1.24 | 0.82 | 2.99 | 0.96 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.30 | 0.99 | 0.63 | 2.16 | 0.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates FMS's fair value at $38.57 vs the current price of $23.46, implying +64.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.11 (P10) to $49.29 (P90), with a median of $41.62.
FMS's current P/E of 11.8x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -40.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover FMS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $28.00 (range: $28.00 — $28.00), implying +19.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FMS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8210.0% to approximately $43. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.