MODEL VERDICT
Solventum Corporation (SOLV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $66.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $68.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $70.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $69.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $65.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $96.06 | +44.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $246.17 | +269.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $271.07 | +306.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $248.63 | +273.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $112.82 | +69.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $117.70 | +76.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $271.07 | +306.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $201.62 | +202.6% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $37 | $55 | $74 | $92 | $111 |
| Conservative (7%) | $38 | $57 | $76 | $95 | $113 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $39 | $59 | $78 | $98 | $117 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $40 | $60 | $81 | $101 | $121 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates SOLV's fair value at $201.62 vs the current price of $66.63, implying +202.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $201.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $176.16 (P10) to $219.11 (P90), with a median of $197.48.
SOLV's current P/E of 7.5x compares to the industry median of 30.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -75.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover SOLV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $97.80 (range: $92.00 — $105.00), implying +46.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SOLV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1940.0% to approximately $54. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.