MODEL VERDICT
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $529.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $532.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $540.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $502.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $472.07 | Pending | +5.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $516.17 | -2.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $623.20 | +17.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $563.95 | +6.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $569.03 | +7.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $544.00 | +2.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $476.02 | -10.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $776.92 | +46.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $266.15 | -49.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $310.91 | -41.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $618.05 | +16.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $580.56 | +9.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $549.83 | +3.8% | 100% | 94 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $462 | $523 | $585 | $646 | $708 |
| Conservative (14%) | $484 | $548 | $613 | $677 | $742 |
| Base Case (21.0%) | $515 | $584 | $652 | $721 | $790 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $547 | $619 | $692 | $765 | $838 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.11 | 14.28 | 12.14 | 16.45 | 1.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.78 | 12.00 | 10.50 | 12.99 | 0.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.20 | 9.11 | 8.79 | 10.13 | 0.49 |
| P/FCF | 14.36 | 14.95 | 8.88 | 17.13 | 2.67 |
| P/FFO | 8.88 | 8.66 | 8.21 | 10.45 | 0.74 |
| P/AFFO | 18.88 | 18.72 | 13.55 | 26.49 | 4.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 72.13 | 63.65 | 19.64 | 141.59 | 51.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.20 | 1.15 | 1.00 | 1.44 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HCA's fair value at $549.83 vs the current price of $529.70, implying +3.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $549.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $430.91 (P10) to $571.63 (P90), with a median of $499.57.
HCA's current P/E of 18.7x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -6.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
46 analysts cover HCA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $523.92 (range: $425.00 — $635.00), implying -1.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HCA trades at the 4000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HCA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2750.0% to approximately $384. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.