MODEL VERDICT
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $433.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $432.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $488.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $488.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $495.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $614.50 | +41.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $568.58 | +31.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $439.83 | +1.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $408.78 | -5.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $602.69 | +39.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $468.61 | +8.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $506.34 | +16.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $420.77 | -2.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $416.80 | -3.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $515.95 | +19.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $384.32 | -11.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $528.93 | +22.1% | 100% | 97 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $338 | $400 | $462 | $523 | $585 |
| Conservative (14%) | $355 | $419 | $484 | $548 | $613 |
| Base Case (21.0%) | $378 | $446 | $515 | $584 | $652 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $401 | $474 | $547 | $619 | $692 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.11 | 14.28 | 12.14 | 16.45 | 1.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.78 | 12.00 | 10.50 | 12.99 | 0.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.20 | 9.11 | 8.79 | 10.13 | 0.49 |
| P/FCF | 14.36 | 14.95 | 8.88 | 17.13 | 2.67 |
| P/FFO | 8.88 | 8.66 | 8.21 | 10.45 | 0.74 |
| P/AFFO | 18.88 | 18.72 | 13.55 | 26.49 | 4.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 72.13 | 63.65 | 19.64 | 141.59 | 51.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.20 | 1.15 | 1.00 | 1.44 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates HCA's fair value at $528.93 vs the current price of $433.05, implying +22.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $528.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $437.83 (P10) to $558.43 (P90), with a median of $496.70.
HCA's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 15.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -1.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
46 analysts cover HCA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $527.45 (range: $436.00 — $635.00), implying +21.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HCA trades at the 4090th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HCA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1130.0% to approximately $384. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.