MODEL VERDICT
Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $239.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $229.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $231.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $193.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $201.20 | Pending | -4.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $289.05 | +20.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $486.19 | +103.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $307.81 | +28.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $475.38 | +98.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $450.51 | +88.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $493.67 | +106.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $661.55 | +176.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $229.84 | -4.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $240.12 | +0.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $337.34 | +40.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $485.01 | +102.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $367.40 | +53.5% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $193 | $228 | $263 | $298 | $333 |
| Conservative (21%) | $207 | $244 | $282 | $319 | $357 |
| Base Case (32.8%) | $226 | $267 | $309 | $350 | $391 |
| Bull Case (44%) | $246 | $291 | $335 | $380 | $425 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.52 | 11.74 | 3.86 | 13.23 | 3.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.86 | 8.62 | 3.90 | 14.12 | 3.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.06 | 6.18 | 3.49 | 7.72 | 1.27 |
| P/FCF | 8.30 | 7.13 | 1.48 | 16.80 | 4.89 |
| P/FFO | 5.04 | 5.01 | 3.08 | 7.95 | 1.69 |
| P/AFFO | 9.02 | 9.42 | 4.00 | 14.33 | 3.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.66 | 1.47 | 1.17 | 2.08 | 0.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.21 | 0.85 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates THC's fair value at $367.40 vs the current price of $239.39, implying +53.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $367.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $276.03 (P10) to $378.13 (P90), with a median of $325.66.
THC's current P/E of 15.5x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -22.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.5x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
32 analysts cover THC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $257.45 (range: $224.00 — $288.00), implying +7.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (25), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: THC trades at the 3000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that THC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5150.0% to approximately $116. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.