MODEL VERDICT
The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $214.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $210.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $213.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $203.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $173.87 | Below threshold | +14.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $128.20 | -40.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $70.78 | -67.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $113.52 | -47.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $105.05 | -51.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $77.56 | -63.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $103.57 | -51.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $89.72 | -58.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $93.40 | -56.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $77.83 | -63.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $120.12 | -43.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $106.25 | -50.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $119.78 | -44.1% | 100% | 94 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $191 | $210 | $228 | $246 | $265 |
| Conservative (9%) | $197 | $216 | $235 | $255 | $274 |
| Base Case (13.8%) | $206 | $226 | $246 | $266 | $286 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $215 | $235 | $256 | $277 | $298 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.98 | 24.55 | 23.03 | 30.74 | 3.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.36 | 22.86 | 21.79 | 29.03 | 3.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.40 | 20.90 | 17.81 | 23.78 | 2.27 |
| P/FCF | 25.47 | 23.78 | 12.59 | 40.95 | 8.67 |
| P/FFO | 19.65 | 19.07 | 15.72 | 22.88 | 2.58 |
| P/TBV | 4.73 | 4.62 | 4.27 | 5.37 | 0.37 |
| P/AFFO | 30.90 | 28.21 | 23.28 | 40.26 | 6.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.42 | 4.31 | 3.87 | 4.97 | 0.36 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.73 | 1.78 | 1.25 | 2.03 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ENSG's fair value at $119.78 vs the current price of $214.17, implying -44.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $119.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $105.34 (P10) to $132.35 (P90), with a median of $118.65.
ENSG's current P/E of 36.7x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +88.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover ENSG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $222.33 (range: $215.00 — $230.00), implying +3.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (2), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ENSG trades at the 8000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ENSG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3040.0% to approximately $149. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.