MODEL VERDICT
Fabrinet (FN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $706.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $720.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $689.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $685.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $662.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $568.56 | -19.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $321.88 | -54.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $494.03 | -30.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $214.77 | -69.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $329.55 | -53.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $224.28 | -68.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $205.72 | -70.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $417.38 | -40.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $404.98 | -42.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $602.85 | -14.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $201.39 | -71.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $385.77 | -45.4% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 65× | 71× | 77× (Current) | 83× | 89× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $656 | $716 | $777 | $837 | $898 |
| Conservative (16%) | $693 | $757 | $821 | $885 | $949 |
| Base Case (25.0%) | $745 | $814 | $883 | $951 | $1020 |
| Bull Case (34%) | $797 | $870 | $944 | $1018 | $1091 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.26 | 27.15 | 20.07 | 49.65 | 9.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.60 | 24.52 | 17.52 | 45.65 | 9.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.49 | 22.42 | 15.11 | 42.91 | 9.06 |
| P/FCF | 56.71 | 46.44 | 18.89 | 142.43 | 43.79 |
| P/FFO | 24.37 | 23.29 | 16.08 | 42.78 | 8.61 |
| P/TBV | 4.49 | 4.01 | 2.84 | 8.34 | 1.85 |
| P/AFFO | 33.00 | 30.45 | 18.38 | 62.34 | 13.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.48 | 4.00 | 2.81 | 8.33 | 1.85 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.58 | 2.37 | 1.53 | 4.83 | 1.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FN's fair value at $385.77 vs the current price of $706.53, implying -45.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $385.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $299.16 (P10) to $454.36 (P90), with a median of $375.29.
FN's current P/E of 77.0x compares to the industry median of 53.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +43.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
24 analysts cover FN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $614.50 (range: $540.00 — $800.00), implying -13.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FN trades at the 6880th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (29.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6580.0% to approximately $242. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.