MODEL VERDICT
F.N.B. Corporation (FNB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $17.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $17.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $17.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $17.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $17.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $20.04 | +13.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $23.99 | +35.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $18.64 | +5.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $20.04 | +13.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $18.41 | +4.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.41 | +9.9% | 100% | 91 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $11 | $15 | $18 | $21 | $25 |
| Conservative (8%) | $12 | $15 | $19 | $22 | $25 |
| Base Case (12.9%) | $12 | $16 | $19 | $23 | $26 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $13 | $16 | $20 | $24 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.83 | 10.95 | 9.86 | 11.64 | 0.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.94 | 12.99 | 5.27 | 17.19 | 3.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.13 | 11.59 | 5.16 | 15.69 | 3.40 |
| P/FCF | 16.73 | 12.79 | 4.11 | 42.95 | 13.89 |
| P/FFO | 9.66 | 9.52 | 8.88 | 10.93 | 0.75 |
| P/TBV | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.17 | 1.62 | 0.14 |
| P/AFFO | 11.62 | 11.04 | 10.52 | 13.64 | 1.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.81 | 0.83 | 0.62 | 0.92 | 0.09 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.47 | 2.30 | 2.09 | 2.94 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates FNB's fair value at $19.41 vs the current price of $17.66, implying +9.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.11 (P10) to $19.74 (P90), with a median of $18.91.
FNB's current P/E of 11.3x compares to the industry median of 12.8x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -11.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.8x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
19 analysts cover FNB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.50 (range: $20.00 — $21.00), implying +16.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FNB trades at the 2690th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FNB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 460.0% to approximately $18. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.