MODEL VERDICT
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $226.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $242.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $262.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $256.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $261.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $117.30 | -48.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $118.84 | -47.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $110.00 | -51.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $98.58 | -56.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $161.48 | -28.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $80.10 | -64.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $79.93 | -64.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $110.00 | -51.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $140.30 | -38.0% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $214 | $233 | $253 | $272 | $292 |
| Conservative (17%) | $227 | $247 | $268 | $289 | $309 |
| Base Case (26.6%) | $245 | $267 | $289 | $312 | $334 |
| Bull Case (36%) | $263 | $287 | $311 | $334 | $358 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.08 | 39.93 | 35.37 | 69.63 | 13.60 |
| EV/EBIT | 38.24 | 30.74 | 27.74 | 64.70 | 14.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.86 | 24.15 | 22.27 | 28.23 | 2.23 |
| P/FCF | 71.11 | 51.19 | 30.53 | 135.88 | 42.51 |
| P/FFO | 30.27 | 28.42 | 25.86 | 40.02 | 5.11 |
| P/TBV | 4.20 | 4.08 | 3.69 | 5.25 | 0.54 |
| P/AFFO | 77.68 | 83.99 | 32.49 | 110.21 | 31.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.20 | 4.08 | 3.69 | 5.25 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 20.78 | 20.70 | 17.45 | 22.48 | 1.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates FNV's fair value at $140.30 vs the current price of $226.44, implying -38.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $140.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $127.32 (P10) to $169.28 (P90), with a median of $147.91.
FNV's current P/E of 38.6x compares to the industry median of 18.8x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +105.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
25 analysts cover FNV with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $275.20 (range: $228.00 — $310.00), implying +21.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (12), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FNV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (46.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1000.0% to approximately $204. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.