MODEL VERDICT
FormFactor, Inc. (FORM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $137.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $155.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $137.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $129.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $123.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $86.81 | -36.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $38.83 | -71.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $45.67 | -66.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $10.76 | -92.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $43.83 | -68.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $9.75 | -92.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $53.78 | -60.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $49.25 | -64.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $42.66 | -68.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $8.38 | -93.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.15 | -68.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 167× | 183× | 199× (Current) | 215× | 231× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $118 | $129 | $140 | $151 | $163 |
| Conservative (5%) | $121 | $133 | $144 | $156 | $167 |
| Base Case (-7.0%) | $107 | $117 | $128 | $138 | $148 |
| Bull Case (-9%) | $104 | $114 | $124 | $134 | $144 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 48.82 | 43.45 | 34.20 | 80.84 | 15.21 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.95 | 36.93 | 28.74 | 63.98 | 11.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.04 | 24.76 | 18.07 | 41.19 | 7.93 |
| P/FCF | 131.67 | 43.63 | 20.03 | 380.18 | 167.32 |
| P/FFO | 29.53 | 27.20 | 19.58 | 47.51 | 9.01 |
| P/TBV | 5.24 | 5.22 | 3.05 | 7.20 | 1.33 |
| P/AFFO | 52.76 | 52.47 | 31.68 | 73.91 | 13.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.68 | 3.64 | 2.15 | 4.57 | 0.85 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.33 | 4.70 | 2.32 | 5.56 | 1.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates FORM's fair value at $43.15 vs the current price of $137.37, implying -68.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.39 (P10) to $59.24 (P90), with a median of $52.74.
FORM's current P/E of 199.1x compares to the industry median of 66.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +200.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 48.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover FORM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $123.38 (range: $64.00 — $175.00), implying -10.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FORM trades at the 9570th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (48.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FORM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6790.0% to approximately $44. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.