MODEL VERDICT
FormFactor, Inc. (FORM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $98.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $94.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $96.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $93.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $68.64 | Below threshold | +38.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $58.35 | -41.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $32.45 | -67.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $37.52 | -62.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $49.50 | -49.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $37.30 | -62.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $50.63 | -48.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $17.03 | -82.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $77.83 | -21.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $78.02 | -21.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $38.26 | -61.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $51.27 | -48.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.55 | -45.8% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 93× | 102× | 111× (Current) | 120× | 129× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $87 | $95 | $103 | $112 | $120 |
| Conservative (8%) | $89 | $98 | $106 | $115 | $124 |
| Base Case (11.8%) | $93 | $101 | $110 | $119 | $128 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $96 | $105 | $114 | $124 | $133 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.73 | 43.13 | 10.21 | 50.92 | 13.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.74 | 35.62 | 27.54 | 41.33 | 4.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.00 | 24.76 | 12.85 | 33.78 | 6.64 |
| P/FCF | 81.61 | 29.97 | 20.03 | 380.18 | 132.12 |
| P/FFO | 23.76 | 26.72 | 7.17 | 33.66 | 8.47 |
| P/TBV | 4.93 | 4.69 | 3.05 | 7.20 | 1.51 |
| P/AFFO | 46.41 | 51.09 | 8.29 | 73.91 | 21.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.33 | 3.59 | 1.83 | 4.57 | 1.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.82 | 4.52 | 2.00 | 4.92 | 1.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FORM's fair value at $53.55 vs the current price of $98.88, implying -45.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.33 (P10) to $61.77 (P90), with a median of $48.28.
FORM's current P/E of 111.1x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +163.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover FORM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $76.29 (range: $55.00 — $100.00), implying -22.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FORM trades at the 8720th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (38.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FORM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4630.0% to approximately $53. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.