MODEL VERDICT
Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $45.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $45.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $49.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $48.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $44.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $41.60 | -8.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $37.11 | -17.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $40.03 | -11.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $24.12 | -46.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $11.95 | -73.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $18.03 | -60.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $73.64 | +62.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $69.94 | +54.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $40.03 | -11.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $28.50 | -37.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $80.42 | +77.9% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $35 | $41 | $47 | $54 | $60 |
| Conservative (7%) | $35 | $42 | $48 | $55 | $61 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $37 | $43 | $50 | $57 | $63 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $38 | $45 | $52 | $58 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.50 | 51.99 | 34.25 | 53.27 | 10.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 90.40 | 47.05 | 38.63 | 185.51 | 82.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 51.84 | 23.04 | 17.78 | 130.60 | 48.50 |
| P/FFO | 32.54 | 20.65 | 15.07 | 57.33 | 20.21 |
| P/AFFO | 49.20 | 22.73 | 21.66 | 103.20 | 46.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.44 | 7.96 | 5.07 | 9.63 | 2.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.74 | 2.33 | 1.77 | 4.43 | 1.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates FOUR's fair value at $80.42 vs the current price of $45.21, implying +77.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $80.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.14 (P10) to $129.56 (P90), with a median of $83.19.
FOUR's current P/E of 14.9x compares to the industry median of 13.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +12.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.5x over 3 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
29 analysts cover FOUR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $73.36 (range: $50.00 — $104.00), implying +62.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FOUR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.