MODEL VERDICT
Fox Corporation (FOXA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $63.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $62.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $65.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $63.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $61.02 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $50.66 | -20.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $142.96 | +125.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $64.37 | +1.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $61.43 | -3.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $158.12 | +149.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $228.23 | +260.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $40.70 | -35.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $119.34 | +88.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $72.58 | +14.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $64.73 | +2.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $61.33 | -3.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $100.31 | +58.3% | 100% | 97 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $49 | $59 | $70 | $81 | $92 |
| Conservative (16%) | $51 | $63 | $74 | $86 | $97 |
| Base Case (24.8%) | $55 | $67 | $80 | $92 | $104 |
| Bull Case (34%) | $59 | $72 | $85 | $98 | $111 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.31 | 14.42 | 10.22 | 17.98 | 2.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.06 | 10.33 | 7.40 | 11.90 | 1.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.33 | 8.00 | 6.20 | 10.04 | 1.53 |
| P/FCF | 11.13 | 10.92 | 8.94 | 15.60 | 2.12 |
| P/FFO | 11.66 | 12.34 | 8.96 | 14.27 | 1.90 |
| P/TBV | 4.69 | 4.71 | 3.57 | 5.86 | 0.77 |
| P/AFFO | 14.48 | 14.54 | 11.17 | 19.98 | 2.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.96 | 1.93 | 1.48 | 2.73 | 0.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.29 | 0.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.60 | 1.67 | 1.06 | 2.07 | 0.38 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FOXA's fair value at $100.31 vs the current price of $63.35, implying +58.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $100.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $87.80 (P10) to $110.88 (P90), with a median of $99.03.
FOXA's current P/E of 12.9x compares to the industry median of 13.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -1.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.3x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
48 analysts cover FOXA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $70.17 (range: $63.00 — $80.00), implying +10.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (25), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FOXA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1150.0% to approximately $71. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.