MODEL VERDICT
Farmland Partners Inc. (FPI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $10.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $11.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $11.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $11.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $7.17 | -33.1% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $6.40 | -40.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $29.04 | +171.1% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $9.66 | -9.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $10.08 | -5.9% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $2.34 | -78.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $9.44 | -11.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $4.89 | -54.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.77 | +19.2% | 100% | 77 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $14 |
| Conservative (7%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $10 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.65 | 20.81 | 11.09 | 77.88 | 30.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.03 | 20.43 | 9.76 | 53.01 | 14.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.31 | 25.21 | 20.30 | 36.67 | 6.38 |
| P/FCF | 36.05 | 40.79 | 11.37 | 56.45 | 18.70 |
| P/FFO | 18.09 | 16.94 | 9.21 | 34.07 | 8.64 |
| P/TBV | 0.82 | 0.91 | 0.45 | 1.16 | 0.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.81 | 0.90 | 0.45 | 1.15 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.67 | 9.52 | 3.82 | 12.66 | 3.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates FPI's fair value at $12.77 vs the current price of $10.71, implying +19.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.65 (P10) to $19.49 (P90), with a median of $13.50.
FPI's current P/E of 17.3x compares to the industry median of 16.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +6.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.6x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
15 analysts cover FPI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $17.00 — $17.00), implying +58.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 56.0% is 41.0 percentage points above the 4-year average (15.0%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$5. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FPI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (15.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4950.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.