MODEL VERDICT
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $63.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $62.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $58.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $60.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $59.21 | Below threshold | +0.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 18 industry peers | $32.81 | -48.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 20 industry peers | $38.19 | -39.5% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $36.88 | -41.6% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $58.39 | -7.5% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $57.83 | -8.4% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 20 industry peers | $42.11 | -33.3% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 20 industry peers | $42.38 | -32.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.13 | -15.8% | 100% | 91 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $55 | $60 | $64 | $69 | $73 |
| Conservative (5%) | $57 | $62 | $66 | $71 | $75 |
| Base Case (2.9%) | $56 | $60 | $65 | $69 | $74 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $56 | $61 | $65 | $70 | $74 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.23 | 23.10 | 17.74 | 31.67 | 4.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 38.37 | 36.87 | 25.33 | 56.72 | 9.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.29 | 18.84 | 12.71 | 24.14 | 3.51 |
| P/FCF | 123.46 | 67.39 | 49.22 | 253.77 | 113.22 |
| P/FFO | 15.21 | 14.37 | 12.46 | 20.95 | 2.88 |
| P/TBV | 2.78 | 2.67 | 2.17 | 3.86 | 0.54 |
| P/AFFO | 48.54 | 47.09 | 26.76 | 90.05 | 25.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.75 | 2.65 | 2.13 | 3.82 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.74 | 11.28 | 8.88 | 18.04 | 3.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates FR's fair value at $53.13 vs the current price of $63.14, implying -15.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.22 (P10) to $71.73 (P90), with a median of $58.27.
FR's current P/E of 29.1x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (15 peers in the group). This represents a +8.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
29 analysts cover FR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $63.89 (range: $59.00 — $67.00), implying +1.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (9), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FR trades at the 5330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.1σ, meaning margins are 2.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (48.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2150.0% to approximately $77. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.