MODEL VERDICT
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $62.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $61.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $63.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $61.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $60.68 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $42.50 | -31.6% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 7 REIT peers | $8.65 | -86.1% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $42.80 | -31.1% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $48.01 | -22.7% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $34.22 | -44.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $52.50 | -15.5% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $76.85 | +23.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $51.64 | -16.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $46.21 | -25.6% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.77 | -29.6% | 100% | 91 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $51 | $57 | $63 | $69 | $74 |
| Conservative (5%) | $53 | $59 | $65 | $71 | $77 |
| Base Case (4.1%) | $53 | $58 | $64 | $70 | $76 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $53 | $59 | $65 | $71 | $77 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.46 | 25.44 | 17.74 | 31.67 | 4.94 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.88 | 27.25 | 23.17 | 42.40 | 7.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.35 | 20.45 | 18.84 | 31.93 | 4.45 |
| P/FCF | 109.11 | 66.72 | 49.22 | 253.77 | 96.79 |
| P/FFO | 15.91 | 15.87 | 12.46 | 20.95 | 2.73 |
| P/TBV | 2.87 | 2.78 | 2.43 | 3.86 | 0.47 |
| P/AFFO | 55.10 | 47.83 | 26.76 | 90.05 | 27.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.83 | 2.75 | 2.42 | 3.82 | 0.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.28 | 11.81 | 9.91 | 18.04 | 2.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates FR's fair value at $43.77 vs the current price of $62.14, implying -29.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.00 (P10) to $50.14 (P90), with a median of $45.95.
FR's current P/E of 33.2x compares to the industry median of 28.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +18.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.5x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
29 analysts cover FR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $65.00 (range: $62.00 — $68.00), implying +4.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (9), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FR trades at the 6000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (49.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1790.0% to approximately $51. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.