First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR)
Valuation Overview•Is First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Moderate quality score of 58/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong dividend yield, though free cash flow coverage appears tight.
FR demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (10.4% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 38.3% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $194.8M | +8.6% | +10.4% | +10.2% | +7.1% | |
| EBITDA | $118.2M | — | +10.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $143.1M | -13.9% | -11.7% | — | +12.9% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.08 | -13.8% | -11.7% | +4.1% | +11.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $88.9M | -14.8% | — | +7.5% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 47.0% | 56.1% | 62.8% | 67.3% |
| Operating Margin | 38.3% | 40.9% | 40.0% | 49.0% |
| Net Margin | 46.0% | 40.6% | 49.0% | 47.0% |
| FCF Margin | 64.9% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.33 | $0.68 | +103.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.42 | $0.77 | +83.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.74 | $0.76 | +2.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.72 | $0.76 | +5.6% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.70 | $0.68 | -2.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.35 | $0.71 | +102.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.38 | $0.75 | +97.4% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.64 | $0.66 | +3.1% |
Total return is +29.5% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +4.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +7.6% | -1.7% | — |
| 1Y | +29.5% | +4.5% | +3.7% |
| 3YCAGR | +8.3% | -11.9% | +9.0% |
| 5YCAGR | +5.8% | -7.6% | +13.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +10.6% | -3.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (FR) valuation, health, and returns.
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -48.5% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $31.82)
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $31.82 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $37.09 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $67.75 (implying +9.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 58/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.5%.
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. pays a 2.8% dividend yield, covered by a 93% payout ratio with 12 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +8.6% 1Y revenue growth and -13.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +10.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 29 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +9.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. include: -10.2% 1-year max drawdown, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.59x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.