MODEL VERDICT
Frontline Ltd. (FRO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $37.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $35.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $37.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $35.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $34.34 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $44.28 | +19.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $12.32 | -66.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $28.83 | -22.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $26.19 | -29.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $15.84 | -57.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $11.61 | -68.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $23.33 | -37.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $28.83 | -22.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.76 | -22.3% | 100% | 67 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $32 | $37 | $41 | $46 | $51 |
| Conservative (15%) | $33 | $39 | $44 | $49 | $54 |
| Base Case (23.4%) | $36 | $41 | $47 | $52 | $58 |
| Bull Case (32%) | $38 | $44 | $50 | $56 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.62 | 6.36 | 2.98 | 16.49 | 5.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.90 | 9.12 | 6.71 | 71.56 | 23.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.37 | 7.79 | 4.99 | 21.72 | 5.79 |
| P/FFO | 5.95 | 5.03 | 2.21 | 9.69 | 2.88 |
| P/TBV | 1.28 | 1.21 | 0.82 | 2.06 | 0.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.20 | 1.15 | 0.76 | 1.96 | 0.44 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.77 | 1.82 | 1.01 | 2.48 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates FRO's fair value at $28.76 vs the current price of $37.01, implying -22.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.90 (P10) to $35.63 (P90), with a median of $29.19.
FRO's current P/E of 16.6x compares to the industry median of 12.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +28.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.6x over 5 years. Signal: Premium.
22 analysts cover FRO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $38.50 (range: $35.00 — $42.00), implying +4.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (10), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FRO trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FRO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (29.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1080.0% to approximately $41. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.