MODEL VERDICT
FRP Holdings, Inc. (FRPH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $21.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $21.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $22.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $21.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $22.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $11.16 | -46.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $16.65 | -20.8% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $46.89 | +123.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $8.95 | -57.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $42.88 | +104.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $28.50 | +35.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $18.70 | -11.0% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.05 | +0.2% | 100% | 78 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 52× | 57× | 62× (Current) | 67× | 72× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 |
| Conservative (5%) | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| Base Case (-16.1%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Bull Case (-22%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 57.50 | 34.52 | 3.74 | 112.29 | 45.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 52.46 | 52.53 | 10.63 | 115.85 | 32.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.32 | 27.67 | 21.15 | 46.74 | 9.19 |
| P/FCF | 68.14 | 10.40 | 1.59 | 409.53 | 150.67 |
| P/FFO | 23.53 | 23.33 | 3.15 | 36.55 | 12.14 |
| P/TBV | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.14 | 1.33 | 0.07 |
| P/AFFO | 143.45 | 48.52 | 23.29 | 358.55 | 186.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.14 | 1.33 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 17.10 | 17.40 | 13.56 | 21.12 | 3.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates FRPH's fair value at $21.05 vs the current price of $21.02, implying +0.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.58 (P10) to $26.16 (P90), with a median of $22.82.
FRPH's current P/E of 61.8x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +134.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 57.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for FRPH.
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FRPH trades at the 8890th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (57.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FRPH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (42.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 25960.0% to approximately $76. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.