MODEL VERDICT
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $211.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $193.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $190.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $195.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $203.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $299.36 | +41.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $366.18 | +73.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $339.83 | +60.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $288.30 | +36.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $394.24 | +86.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $307.41 | +45.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $1337.43 | +531.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $149.36 | -29.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $83.99 | -60.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $333.57 | +57.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $272.25 | +28.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $484.41 | +128.8% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $175 | $207 | $239 | $271 | $303 |
| Conservative (20%) | $187 | $222 | $256 | $290 | $324 |
| Base Case (30.7%) | $204 | $241 | $279 | $316 | $353 |
| Bull Case (41%) | $221 | $261 | $301 | $342 | $382 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.34 | 19.90 | 14.66 | 26.52 | 4.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 133.16 | 17.43 | 12.49 | 706.58 | 280.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.66 | 14.74 | 9.76 | 117.55 | 40.76 |
| P/FFO | 29.47 | 16.24 | 11.05 | 70.76 | 26.39 |
| P/TBV | 2.23 | 2.40 | 1.17 | 2.97 | 0.68 |
| P/AFFO | 55.58 | 49.33 | 23.65 | 100.02 | 32.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.21 | 2.38 | 1.16 | 2.95 | 0.68 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.37 | 4.51 | 1.92 | 6.09 | 1.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 27 valuation metrics, the model estimates FSLR's fair value at $484.41 vs the current price of $211.71, implying +128.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $484.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $288.77 (P10) to $632.12 (P90), with a median of $425.81.
FSLR's current P/E of 14.9x compares to the industry median of 23.9x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -37.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.3x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
73 analysts cover FSLR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $264.13 (range: $205.00 — $330.00), implying +24.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (42), Hold (24), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FSLR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (17.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2240.0% to approximately $164. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.