MODEL VERDICT
Fastly, Inc. (FSLY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $28.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $23.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $24.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $23.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $23.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $9.29 | -66.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $25.81 | -8.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $26.90 | -4.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.51 | -51.9% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 11.57 | 7.32 | 4.93 | 29.71 | 9.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.77 | 3.20 | 1.04 | 8.52 | 2.84 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.80 | 5.69 | 2.30 | 31.10 | 11.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates FSLY's fair value at $13.51 vs the current price of $28.07, implying -51.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.37 (P10) to $20.49 (P90), with a median of $14.76.
FSLY's current P/E of -24.6x compares to the industry median of 28.3x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -187.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover FSLY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $19.50 (range: $13.00 — $32.00), implying -30.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FSLY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.