MODEL VERDICT
Fortuna Mining Corp. (FSM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $9.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $17.70 | +86.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $32.86 | +246.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $18.26 | +92.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $23.63 | +149.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $17.68 | +86.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $20.29 | +114.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $24.00 | +153.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $21.70 | +128.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $21.29 | +124.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $18.25 | +92.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $22.71 | +139.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $68.25 | +619.9% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (20%) | $8 | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 |
| Conservative (32%) | $8 | $11 | $13 | $15 | $18 |
| Base Case (49.6%) | $9 | $12 | $15 | $18 | $20 |
| Bull Case (67%) | $11 | $14 | $17 | $20 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.84 | 16.96 | 10.46 | 68.67 | 24.34 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.96 | 12.74 | 5.48 | 114.86 | 42.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.13 | 5.81 | 2.78 | 21.13 | 6.77 |
| P/FCF | 1097.31 | 12.61 | 8.23 | 4355.80 | 2172.33 |
| P/FFO | 11.33 | 6.75 | 3.64 | 24.45 | 8.63 |
| P/TBV | 1.20 | 0.91 | 0.68 | 2.11 | 0.57 |
| P/AFFO | 17.81 | 10.34 | 8.18 | 34.92 | 14.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.20 | 0.91 | 0.68 | 2.11 | 0.57 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.48 | 1.62 | 1.26 | 5.50 | 1.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FSM's fair value at $68.25 vs the current price of $9.48, implying +619.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $68.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.07 (P10) to $262.92 (P90), with a median of $88.00.
FSM's current P/E of 10.5x compares to the industry median of 20.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -48.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.8x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover FSM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $14.00 — $14.00), implying +47.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 27.6% is 28.3 percentage points above the 5-year average (15.0%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$13. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FSM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (15.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3820.0% to approximately $13. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.