MODEL VERDICT
L.B. Foster Company (FSTR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $30.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $32.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $30.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $29.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $30.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $30.50 | -0.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $44.45 | +44.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $18.92 | -38.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $96.56 | +214.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $39.43 | +28.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $95.66 | +211.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $97.66 | +218.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $91.04 | +196.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $18.88 | -38.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $96.54 | +214.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44.51 | +45.0% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 40× | 44× (Current) | 48× | 52× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
| Conservative (5%) | $26 | $29 | $32 | $35 | $38 |
| Base Case (-0.6%) | $25 | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $25 | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.92 | 30.13 | 4.74 | 169.15 | 61.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.04 | 17.15 | 8.71 | 47.34 | 13.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.87 | 10.30 | 5.40 | 27.32 | 7.20 |
| P/FCF | 13.93 | 10.08 | 7.45 | 23.14 | 7.43 |
| P/FFO | 9.00 | 8.02 | 3.62 | 14.66 | 4.63 |
| P/TBV | 1.82 | 1.91 | 1.12 | 2.65 | 0.59 |
| P/AFFO | 11.05 | 11.47 | 4.29 | 19.80 | 6.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.24 | 1.21 | 0.75 | 1.69 | 0.43 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.21 | 0.56 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates FSTR's fair value at $44.51 vs the current price of $30.70, implying +45.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.67 (P10) to $55.32 (P90), with a median of $48.15.
FSTR's current P/E of 44.5x compares to the industry median of 27.4x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +62.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.9x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover FSTR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $21.00 (range: $21.00 — $21.00), implying -31.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FSTR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (2.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9090.0% to approximately $59. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.