MODEL VERDICT
FirstService Corporation (FSV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $132.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $146.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $152.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $149.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $145.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $124.49 | -5.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 8 REIT peers | $100.85 | -23.8% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $106.79 | -19.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $60.65 | -54.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $87.74 | -33.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $92.55 | -30.1% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $113.50 | -14.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $122.89 | -7.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $123.05 | -7.0% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $142.50 | +7.7% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 39× | 42× (Current) | 45× | 48× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $118 | $128 | $138 | $148 | $157 |
| Conservative (6%) | $121 | $131 | $141 | $151 | $161 |
| Base Case (9.4%) | $124 | $135 | $145 | $156 | $166 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $128 | $139 | $149 | $160 | $171 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 59.95 | 62.68 | 45.06 | 72.36 | 10.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.56 | 31.23 | 25.10 | 41.69 | 6.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.10 | 20.91 | 16.44 | 31.21 | 5.27 |
| P/FCF | 66.06 | 47.41 | 22.01 | 192.79 | 59.40 |
| P/FFO | 28.88 | 29.58 | 21.50 | 37.25 | 5.87 |
| P/AFFO | 43.04 | 42.13 | 35.37 | 53.55 | 7.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.77 | 5.35 | 3.83 | 8.56 | 1.56 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.76 | 1.57 | 1.29 | 2.68 | 0.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates FSV's fair value at $142.50 vs the current price of $132.34, implying +7.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $142.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $125.83 (P10) to $158.94 (P90), with a median of $142.25.
FSV's current P/E of 41.9x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +43.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 60.0x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
9 analysts cover FSV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $203.00 (range: $202.00 — $204.00), implying +53.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FSV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (1.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3320.0% to approximately $88. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.