MODEL VERDICT
FTC Solar, Inc. (FTCI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $19.25 | +99.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $15.04 | +56.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.94 | +55.0% | 100% | 38 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.15 | 4.63 | 1.47 | 5.87 | 1.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.40 | 3.88 | 1.28 | 4.55 | 1.46 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.68 | 1.84 | 0.63 | 2.40 | 0.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates FTCI's fair value at $14.94 vs the current price of $9.64, implying +55.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 38/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.29 (P10) to $21.84 (P90), with a median of $16.56.
FTCI's current P/E of -2.5x compares to the industry median of 38.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -106.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover FTCI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $10.00 — $20.00), implying +55.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (7), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 38/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FTCI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.