MODEL VERDICT
TechnipFMC plc (FTI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $75.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $74.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $70.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $72.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $73.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $62.19 | -17.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $32.06 | -57.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $60.68 | -19.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $63.57 | -16.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $39.49 | -47.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $73.95 | -2.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $38.84 | -48.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $35.62 | -53.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $59.64 | -21.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $66.66 | -12.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $70.87 | -6.5% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $65 | $72 | $79 | $86 | $93 |
| Conservative (7%) | $66 | $73 | $81 | $88 | $96 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $68 | $76 | $83 | $91 | $99 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $70 | $78 | $86 | $94 | $102 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 117.12 | 25.27 | 15.15 | 402.80 | 190.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.82 | 26.30 | 12.89 | 72.93 | 23.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.97 | 11.64 | 9.04 | 21.14 | 4.10 |
| P/FCF | 16.17 | 18.76 | 4.56 | 28.22 | 8.01 |
| P/FFO | 14.74 | 13.28 | 6.75 | 22.92 | 6.74 |
| P/TBV | 3.77 | 3.54 | 1.01 | 7.53 | 2.56 |
| P/AFFO | 29.10 | 17.15 | 13.00 | 52.87 | 19.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.39 | 1.67 | 0.79 | 5.48 | 1.83 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.05 | 1.13 | 0.42 | 1.88 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates FTI's fair value at $70.87 vs the current price of $75.79, implying -6.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $70.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.84 (P10) to $109.00 (P90), with a median of $69.14.
FTI's current P/E of 33.0x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +24.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 117.1x over 4 years. Signal: Premium.
50 analysts cover FTI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $67.38 (range: $50.00 — $83.00), implying -11.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (32), Hold (18), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 10.6% is 5.5 percentage points above the 4-year average (4.8%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$122. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FTI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (4.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6060.0% to approximately $122. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.