MODEL VERDICT
Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $79.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $80.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $85.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $85.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $79.22 | Below threshold | +8.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $46.98 | -40.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $50.76 | -35.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $55.54 | -29.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $43.61 | -44.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $49.14 | -37.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $49.84 | -36.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $111.80 | +41.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $31.13 | -60.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $25.24 | -68.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $56.55 | -28.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $45.41 | -42.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $70.37 | -11.0% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $74 | $83 | $91 | $99 | $107 |
| Conservative (22%) | $80 | $89 | $97 | $106 | $115 |
| Base Case (33.2%) | $87 | $97 | $107 | $117 | $126 |
| Bull Case (45%) | $95 | $106 | $116 | $127 | $137 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 52.37 | 46.12 | 32.68 | 98.47 | 21.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.04 | 39.73 | 25.49 | 92.84 | 22.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 42.27 | 36.88 | 25.92 | 81.28 | 17.96 |
| P/FCF | 31.61 | 26.69 | 26.01 | 49.89 | 9.28 |
| P/FFO | 46.47 | 40.94 | 29.62 | 86.89 | 18.73 |
| P/TBV | 64.77 | 63.78 | 15.02 | 112.48 | 41.33 |
| P/AFFO | 65.49 | 57.75 | 36.21 | 151.92 | 39.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 43.01 | 48.00 | 13.92 | 75.22 | 23.11 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.69 | 8.91 | 8.64 | 17.97 | 3.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FTNT's fair value at $70.37 vs the current price of $79.03, implying -11.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $70.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $56.30 (P10) to $80.21 (P90), with a median of $68.05.
FTNT's current P/E of 32.5x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +42.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 52.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
67 analysts cover FTNT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $85.71 (range: $70.00 — $95.00), implying +8.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (32), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 27.3% is 5.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (21.3%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$100. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FTNT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2610.0% to approximately $100. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.