Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$79.03
→
Intrinsic$115.94
+47%
$78.20$115.94$190.90
Market implies 15% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests FTNT could have 47% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $79, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (15%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $78 → Bull $191. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $147 | $158 | $171 | $184 |
| 10% | $100 | $108 | $116 | $125 |
| 12% | $75 | $81 | $87 | $93 |
| 14% | $60 | $65 | $69 | $74 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($191) offers 142% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
- 32% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (15%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($78) implies 1% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$2.78B
Year 2$3.48B
Year 3$4.35B
Year 4$5.43B
Year 5$6.79B
Terminal$107.64B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.23BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.