MODEL VERDICT
Fortis Inc. (FTS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $57.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $56.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $56.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $54.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $51.46 | Below threshold | +5.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $71.64 | +24.6% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $41.12 | -28.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 31 industry peers | $58.42 | +1.6% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $64.95 | +13.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $19.22 | -66.6% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 21 industry peers | $32.86 | -42.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $1.50 | -97.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $71.64 | +24.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.49 | -12.2% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $66 | $73 | $80 | $87 | $94 |
| Conservative (5%) | $68 | $75 | $82 | $89 | $96 |
| Base Case (5.0%) | $68 | $75 | $82 | $89 | $96 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $69 | $76 | $84 | $91 | $98 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.43 | 14.40 | 11.41 | 18.49 | 2.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.96 | 16.22 | 13.14 | 18.38 | 1.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.75 | 10.89 | 9.51 | 12.22 | 0.86 |
| P/FFO | 6.60 | 6.26 | 5.71 | 8.13 | 0.84 |
| P/TBV | 2.39 | 2.37 | 1.86 | 2.90 | 0.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 1.09 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.02 | 2.08 | 1.74 | 2.41 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates FTS's fair value at $50.49 vs the current price of $57.50, implying -12.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.01 (P10) to $64.45 (P90), with a median of $53.69.
FTS's current P/E of 23.1x compares to the industry median of 21.1x (38 peers in the group). This represents a +9.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
12 analysts cover FTS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $50.86 (range: $46.95 — $61.00), implying -11.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FTS trades at the 6050th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FTS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1820.0% to approximately $47. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.