MODEL VERDICT
Fortis Inc. (FTS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $57.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $56.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $56.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $56.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $57.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $76.74 | +34.2% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $60.22 | +5.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $53.59 | -6.3% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $73.23 | +28.1% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $73.40 | +28.4% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $62.36 | +9.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $38.22 | -33.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $76.74 | +34.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $60.13 | +5.2% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $66 | $73 | $80 | $87 | $94 |
| Conservative (5%) | $68 | $75 | $82 | $89 | $96 |
| Base Case (5.0%) | $68 | $75 | $82 | $89 | $96 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $69 | $76 | $84 | $91 | $98 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.43 | 14.40 | 11.41 | 18.49 | 2.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.96 | 16.22 | 13.14 | 18.38 | 1.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.75 | 10.89 | 9.51 | 12.22 | 0.86 |
| P/FFO | 6.60 | 6.26 | 5.71 | 8.13 | 0.84 |
| P/TBV | 2.39 | 2.37 | 1.86 | 2.90 | 0.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 1.09 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.02 | 2.08 | 1.74 | 2.41 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates FTS's fair value at $60.13 vs the current price of $57.18, implying +5.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $60.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.52 (P10) to $63.16 (P90), with a median of $59.27.
FTS's current P/E of 22.8x compares to the industry median of 22.6x (13 peers in the group). This represents a +1.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
12 analysts cover FTS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $62.00 (range: $62.00 — $62.00), implying +8.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FTS trades at the 7250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FTS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1770.0% to approximately $47. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.