MODEL VERDICT
Formula One Group (FWONK) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $91.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $90.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $85.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $85.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $90.28 | Below threshold | -6.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 59.24 | 38.89 | 38.37 | 100.44 | 35.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.53 | 35.37 | 24.49 | 37.16 | 5.53 |
| P/FCF | 50.76 | 45.20 | 31.09 | 76.74 | 17.62 |
| P/FFO | 50.92 | 69.06 | 15.59 | 73.53 | 27.50 |
| P/AFFO | 82.20 | 90.03 | 22.80 | 115.71 | 36.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.16 | 2.07 | 1.48 | 3.01 | 0.50 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.11 | 5.83 | 4.60 | 8.49 | 1.38 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 1 valuation metrics, the model estimates FWONK's fair value at $42.38 vs the current price of $91.59, implying -53.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
FWONK's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 30.1x (18 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: N/A.
24 analysts cover FWONK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $119.25 (range: $111.00 — $124.00), implying +30.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FWONK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.