MODEL VERDICT
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $13.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $13.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $13.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $13.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $12.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $13.59 | -1.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $12.11 | -12.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $12.11 | -12.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $14.31 | +3.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $13.59 | -1.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $12.22 | -11.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.45 | +4.7% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $10 | $13 | $16 | $19 | $22 |
| Conservative (20%) | $10 | $14 | $17 | $20 | $24 |
| Base Case (30.9%) | $11 | $15 | $19 | $22 | $26 |
| Bull Case (42%) | $12 | $16 | $20 | $24 | $28 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.18 | 10.54 | 7.61 | 38.22 | 11.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.73 | 24.42 | 12.70 | 74.69 | 22.91 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.73 | 24.42 | 12.70 | 74.69 | 22.91 |
| P/FCF | 11.09 | 11.22 | 8.87 | 13.16 | 2.15 |
| P/TBV | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.54 | 1.01 | 0.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.54 | 1.01 | 0.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.28 | 6.41 | 4.50 | 39.14 | 12.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates GBDC's fair value at $14.45 vs the current price of $13.80, implying +4.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.73 (P10) to $18.37 (P90), with a median of $14.70.
GBDC's current P/E of 9.7x compares to the industry median of 9.6x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +1.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.2x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
11 analysts cover GBDC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.33 (range: $13.00 — $15.00), implying +3.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GBDC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (41.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3650.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.