Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)
Valuation Overview•Is Global Business Travel Group, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 44/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside with steady expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
GBTG struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (13.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (4.4%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $840.0M | +12.2% | +13.7% | +27.9% | — | |
| EBITDA | $107.0M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $52.0M | +179.0% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.10 | +170.0% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$52.0M | -37.0% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 57.0% | 59.4% | 54.2% | 51.8% |
| Operating Margin | 4.4% | 3.7% | -14.6% | -22.5% |
| Net Margin | 2.9% | -1.5% | -1.4% | -12.8% |
| FCF Margin | 0.9% | 4.3% | -17.3% | -16.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.05 | $0.05 | +0.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.02 | $0.06 | +200.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.12 | $-0.07 | -158.2% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.02 | $0.03 | +50.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.10 | $0.16 | +60.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.03 | $-0.03 | -200.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.08 | $-0.22 | -175.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.02 | $0.06 | +271.5% |
Total return is +54.2% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +29.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +24.5% | +15.2% | — |
| 1Y | +54.2% | +29.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +7.2% | -12.3% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -1.1% | -13.5% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -0.3% | -13.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG) valuation, health, and returns.
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $9.84)
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $9.84 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $5.69 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $8.43 (implying -9.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 44/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.8 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.8%.
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 1.5% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +13.2% in the last 12 months.
Global Business Travel Group, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +12.2% 1Y revenue growth and +170.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +13.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 8 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -9.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Global Business Travel Group, Inc. include: -40.4% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.95x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.