MODEL VERDICT
Gannett Co., Inc. (GCI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $5.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $5.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $5.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $5.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $5.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $2.62 | -56.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $7.91 | +32.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $6.84 | +14.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $17.25 | +189.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $21.73 | +264.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $6.60 | +10.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.22 | +4.3% | 100% | 70 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 39.66 | 43.38 | 14.35 | 70.39 | 23.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.03 | 9.16 | 6.26 | 16.77 | 4.08 |
| P/FCF | 15.60 | 11.19 | 5.69 | 37.36 | 12.14 |
| P/FFO | 5.54 | 5.55 | 2.51 | 10.41 | 3.25 |
| P/AFFO | 9.82 | 7.40 | 3.57 | 24.41 | 8.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.52 | 1.01 | 0.44 | 4.72 | 1.44 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 0.44 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates GCI's fair value at $6.22 vs the current price of $5.96, implying +4.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.62 (P10) to $7.51 (P90), with a median of $6.01.
GCI's current P/E of -33.1x compares to the industry median of 36.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -190.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover GCI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.55 (range: $5.10 — $6.00), implying -6.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GCI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.