MODEL VERDICT
General Dynamics Corporation (GD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $345.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $313.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $336.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $338.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $335.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $308.91 | -10.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $347.37 | +0.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $362.24 | +4.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $263.76 | -23.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $367.94 | +6.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $279.70 | -19.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $97.87 | -71.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $331.80 | -4.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $312.80 | -9.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $362.24 | +4.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $263.62 | -23.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $357.90 | +3.5% | 100% | 89 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $286 | $318 | $350 | $381 | $413 |
| Conservative (5%) | $292 | $325 | $357 | $390 | $422 |
| Base Case (7.0%) | $298 | $331 | $364 | $397 | $430 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $305 | $339 | $372 | $406 | $440 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.48 | 19.33 | 13.53 | 21.78 | 3.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.35 | 16.64 | 12.95 | 18.43 | 2.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.16 | 14.45 | 10.93 | 16.51 | 2.11 |
| P/FCF | 20.40 | 19.92 | 14.82 | 25.72 | 3.78 |
| P/FFO | 14.92 | 15.66 | 10.59 | 18.86 | 2.91 |
| P/AFFO | 19.33 | 19.49 | 13.92 | 24.73 | 3.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.41 | 3.36 | 2.74 | 3.78 | 0.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.13 | 1.75 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GD's fair value at $357.90 vs the current price of $345.84, implying +3.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $357.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $283.83 (P10) to $342.48 (P90), with a median of $312.39.
GD's current P/E of 22.4x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -4.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
34 analysts cover GD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $408.83 (range: $371.00 — $444.00), implying +18.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (16), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GD trades at the 810th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1180.0% to approximately $387. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.