MODEL VERDICT
GE Aerospace (GE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $286.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $284.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $304.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $313.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $308.35 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $207.54 | -27.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $184.94 | -35.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $289.95 | +1.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $200.90 | -29.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $180.58 | -37.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $225.49 | -21.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $123.14 | -57.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $107.50 | -62.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $92.75 | -67.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $289.90 | +1.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $200.90 | -29.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $333.82 | +16.5% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 29× | 32× | 35× (Current) | 38× | 41× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $248 | $273 | $299 | $325 | $350 |
| Conservative (8%) | $255 | $281 | $308 | $334 | $360 |
| Base Case (11.8%) | $265 | $292 | $319 | $347 | $374 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $274 | $303 | $331 | $359 | $388 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 260.41 | 27.84 | 11.51 | 1212.79 | 532.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.18 | 22.79 | 10.32 | 41.51 | 12.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.40 | 23.82 | 13.72 | 33.71 | 7.08 |
| P/FCF | 70.22 | 31.21 | 12.05 | 303.53 | 103.68 |
| P/FFO | 22.24 | 23.57 | 6.42 | 37.60 | 13.64 |
| P/TBV | 21.97 | 17.61 | 3.62 | 58.55 | 20.27 |
| P/AFFO | 50.59 | 27.20 | 10.21 | 165.19 | 65.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.34 | 2.00 | 1.55 | 17.39 | 6.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.80 | 1.96 | 0.67 | 7.17 | 2.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GE's fair value at $333.82 vs the current price of $286.51, implying +16.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $333.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $188.68 (P10) to $754.53 (P90), with a median of $360.59.
GE's current P/E of 35.1x compares to the industry median of 35.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -1.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 260.4x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
34 analysts cover GE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $386.20 (range: $365.00 — $425.00), implying +34.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (13.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 47350.0% to approximately $1643. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.