Great Elm Capital Corp. (GECC)
Valuation Overview•Is Great Elm Capital Corp. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Fragile underlying quality score of 23/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
GECC struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.2M | +13.1% | — | — | — | |
| EBITDA | -$745K | — | +6.3% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$745K | -994.7% | -26.8% | — | -12.6% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.05 | -813.9% | — | — | +0.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $23.5M | +96.6% | +59.3% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | — | 63.6% | 22.0% | -4.4% |
| Operating Margin | — | 17.0% | -10.7% | -19.4% |
| Net Margin | — | 2.8% | -19.2% | -50.9% |
| FCF Margin | — | -57.9% | -115.2% | -63.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.32 | $0.36 | +12.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.32 | $0.31 | -3.1% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.24 | $0.20 | -16.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.44 | $0.51 | +15.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.39 | $0.40 | +2.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.35 | $0.20 | -42.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.36 | $0.39 | +8.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.33 | $0.32 | -3.0% |
Total return is -34.8% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -55.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -10.9% | -18.3% | — |
| 1Y | -34.8% | -55.6% | +12.3% |
| 3YCAGR | +8.9% | -10.5% | +56.2% |
| 5YCAGR | -7.9% | -19.7% | +39.3% |
| 10YCAGR | -6.5% | -20.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Great Elm Capital Corp. (GECC) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Great Elm Capital Corp. appears Limited: Fair versus peers compared to industry peers.
Great Elm Capital Corp. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $5.44. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Great Elm Capital Corp. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 23/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -1.8 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -3.1%.
Great Elm Capital Corp. pays a 28.1% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Great Elm Capital Corp.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +13.1% 1Y revenue growth and -813.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Great Elm Capital Corp. include: -58.6% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.51x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.