MODEL VERDICT
Greif, Inc. (GEF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $66.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $66.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $69.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $67.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $70.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $48.45 | -27.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $29.76 | -55.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $233.10 | +248.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $56.61 | -15.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $870.62 | +1202.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $66.06 | -1.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $58.52 | -12.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $230.60 | +245.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $158.40 | +137.0% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (19%) | $71 | $71 | $71 | $107 | $142 |
| Conservative (30%) | $78 | $78 | $78 | $117 | $156 |
| Base Case (46.1%) | $88 | $88 | $88 | $131 | $175 |
| Bull Case (62%) | $97 | $97 | $97 | $146 | $195 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.83 | 8.66 | 4.51 | 20.84 | 5.30 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.31 | 12.65 | 9.01 | 24.94 | 6.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.80 | 7.82 | 6.31 | 10.14 | 1.46 |
| P/FCF | 9.90 | 8.26 | 6.87 | 17.06 | 3.99 |
| P/FFO | 5.18 | 5.49 | 2.93 | 6.46 | 1.13 |
| P/AFFO | 7.92 | 8.41 | 3.38 | 10.58 | 2.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.58 | 1.76 | 1.06 | 1.86 | 0.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.75 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates GEF's fair value at $158.40 vs the current price of $66.83, implying +137.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $158.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $68.49 (P10) to $95.35 (P90), with a median of $81.94.
GEF's current P/E of 4.5x compares to the industry median of 15.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -71.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover GEF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $75.33 (range: $72.00 — $79.00), implying +12.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (6), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GEF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.1σ, meaning margins are 2.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3130.0% to approximately $46. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.