MODEL VERDICT
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $18.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $18.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $18.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $17.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $17.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $15.59 | -16.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $20.37 | +8.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $44.20 | +135.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $19.36 | +3.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $28.12 | +50.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $26.08 | +39.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $27.09 | +44.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $30.74 | +63.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.78 | +53.5% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $12 | $15 | $19 | $23 | $27 |
| Conservative (9%) | $12 | $16 | $20 | $24 | $28 |
| Base Case (14.1%) | $12 | $17 | $21 | $25 | $29 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $13 | $17 | $22 | $26 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.87 | 11.86 | 8.86 | 127.18 | 43.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.62 | 13.25 | 8.41 | 23.93 | 5.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.35 | 10.07 | 6.42 | 12.58 | 2.34 |
| P/FCF | 8.72 | 6.40 | 3.19 | 22.94 | 7.24 |
| P/FFO | 7.87 | 5.75 | 4.29 | 23.71 | 7.05 |
| P/TBV | 40.63 | 6.71 | 3.36 | 205.96 | 81.17 |
| P/AFFO | 14.50 | 8.01 | 6.24 | 47.19 | 16.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.52 | 1.17 | 0.96 | 2.81 | 0.67 |
| Div Yield | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.74 | 0.56 | 0.41 | 1.55 | 0.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates GEO's fair value at $28.78 vs the current price of $18.75, implying +53.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.12 (P10) to $34.01 (P90), with a median of $24.15.
GEO's current P/E of 10.3x compares to the industry median of 24.3x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -57.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover GEO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.50 (range: $14.00 — $35.00), implying +30.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GEO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 26010.0% to approximately $68. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.