MODEL VERDICT
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, competitive benchmarking & quality-adjusted fair value
The market is pricing The GEO Group, Inc. at a 48.11% premium to its peer-implied fair value.
3 curated peers matched by core operations and segment-adjacent attributes
2 valuation metrics · peer-median based
| Multiple | Current | Peer Median | vs Peers | Implied Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/EPrice paid for next year's expected earnings. | 23.85x | 16.5x | Premium +44.57% | $20.25 |
| EV/EBITDAEnterprise value versus operating cash earnings proxy. | 14.28x | 8.3x | Premium +72.12% | $13.68 |
How the model derives the final fair value from peer baselines and quality metrics
Premium: The stock is trading at a 92.66% premium to its quality-adjusted fair value of $15.20. The market is pricing the stock 48.1% above our model's estimate.
Quality metrics trail the peer group, warranting a discount.
Quality adjustments are capped at ±15% (up to ±20% for financial services) to prevent runaway premiums. Based on trailing twelve months and multi-year CAGR data where available.
How current multiples rank vs 8 years of the stock’s own history
| Multiple | Current | Historical Median | Percentile | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E8 years of data | 16.09x | 12.61x | 75th | Above historical norm |
| EV/EBITDA8 years of data | 14.28x | 10.29x | 100th | Above historical norm |
The GEO Group, Inc. currently trades near the highest valuation levels observed during the last 8 years.
Wall Street target prices — 12 analysts
Model-identified caveats to consider
GEO looks expensive versus peers using AI-curated peers, with relative upside of -48.1%.
Answers to common questions about GEO's relative valuation and our methodology.
The GEO Group, Inc.'s fair value of $15.19 is the price at which the stock would trade if valued at the same multiples as its 3-company peer group, adjusted for differences in business quality. At $29.28, the stock trades at a -48.12% premium to fair value. This is a reference point, not a price target.
A core set of peers matched by business model was augmented with segment-adjacent companies sharing key business attributes, bringing the total to 3 clean peers. Only companies with usable financial data are included.
The GEO Group, Inc. has challenges in 3y revenue growth, 3y eps growth, roic, fcf margin, net debt / ebitda, and a quality score that warrants a 12% discount relative to its peer group. The Quality Adjustment section breaks down each driver.
No. This page provides an automated quantitative comparison of The GEO Group, Inc. against its peers. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Valuation is only one factor in an investment decision — it does not account for growth catalysts, management quality, regulatory risk, or your personal financial situation.
A 48.12% premium is substantial. Large premiums suggest the market is pricing in significant growth or quality advantages that must be delivered to justify the current price. Review the Risk Factors and Historical Context sections to assess whether the gap is justified.
Valuation data is refreshed weekly based on the latest financial filings, market prices, and analyst estimates. The GEO Group, Inc.'s fair value, peer multiples, and quality scores will shift over time as new earnings are reported and stock prices change.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Fair value estimates are model outputs under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.