MODEL VERDICT
Guess', Inc. (GES)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $16.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $16.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $16.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $16.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $16.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $21.27 | +26.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $4.83 | -71.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $12.43 | -26.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $6.96 | -58.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $15.25 | -9.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $38.65 | +129.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $27.58 | +64.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $12.08 | -28.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $6.73 | -60.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.60 | +10.7% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
| Conservative (5%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Base Case (-10.4%) | $12 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
| Bull Case (-14%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.26 | 13.79 | 4.55 | 131.65 | 49.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.74 | 15.31 | 6.93 | 33.02 | 9.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.52 | 11.98 | 5.49 | 154.47 | 54.34 |
| P/FCF | 16.05 | 15.97 | 3.83 | 32.28 | 10.28 |
| P/FFO | 9.69 | 8.29 | 3.78 | 22.14 | 6.46 |
| P/TBV | 2.34 | 2.24 | 1.40 | 2.95 | 0.52 |
| P/AFFO | 13.83 | 13.29 | 5.29 | 27.02 | 8.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.21 | 2.13 | 1.33 | 2.78 | 0.48 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.35 | 0.81 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates GES's fair value at $18.60 vs the current price of $16.81, implying +10.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.42 (P10) to $34.28 (P90), with a median of $19.44.
GES's current P/E of 21.8x compares to the industry median of 16.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +35.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.3x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
32 analysts cover GES with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $26.19 (range: $16.75 — $37.00), implying +55.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (16), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GES's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 19090.0% to approximately $49. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.