MODEL VERDICT
Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $2.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $1.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $1.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $2.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $1.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $0.80 | -60.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $1.22 | -39.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $1.22 | -39.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.32 | +1048.8% | 100% | 44 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.03 | 1.01 | 0.39 | 1.65 | 0.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.39 | 1.65 | 0.49 |
| P/S Ratio | 288.99 | 28.63 | 1.15 | 1572.23 | 580.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates GEVO's fair value at $23.32 vs the current price of $2.03, implying +1048.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.76 (P10) to $36.49 (P90), with a median of $10.63.
GEVO's current P/E of -14.5x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -155.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover GEVO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $3.50 (range: $3.50 — $3.50), implying +72.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GEVO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.