MODEL VERDICT
Griffon Corporation (GFF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $92.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $93.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $87.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $83.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $78.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $115.32 | +24.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $57.28 | -38.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $25.75 | -72.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $166.66 | +80.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $46.65 | -49.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $150.21 | +62.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $45.93 | -50.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $151.02 | +63.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $164.48 | +77.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $25.65 | -72.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $167.55 | +81.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $82.60 | -10.8% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 71× | 78× | 85× (Current) | 92× | 99× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $83 | $91 | $99 | $107 | $116 |
| Conservative (12%) | $86 | $95 | $103 | $112 | $120 |
| Base Case (17.8%) | $91 | $100 | $109 | $118 | $127 |
| Bull Case (24%) | $96 | $106 | $115 | $124 | $134 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.59 | 30.59 | 16.85 | 67.57 | 19.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.12 | 13.13 | 9.61 | 22.77 | 5.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.94 | 10.88 | 9.35 | 18.58 | 4.32 |
| P/FCF | 20.23 | 11.46 | 9.12 | 68.62 | 21.57 |
| P/FFO | 15.58 | 11.91 | 8.08 | 30.13 | 9.07 |
| P/AFFO | 25.99 | 16.22 | 12.61 | 55.74 | 18.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.62 | 3.87 | 1.22 | 46.48 | 16.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.86 | 0.65 | 0.37 | 1.36 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GFF's fair value at $82.60 vs the current price of $92.55, implying -10.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $82.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $78.34 (P10) to $105.92 (P90), with a median of $90.83.
GFF's current P/E of 84.9x compares to the industry median of 23.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +259.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.6x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover GFF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $111.50 (range: $108.00 — $115.00), implying +20.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GFF trades at the 8750th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (34.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GFF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11970.0% to approximately $203. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.