MODEL VERDICT
Graham Corporation (GHM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $98.19 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $94.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $97.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $95.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $91.97 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $28.77 | -70.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $40.27 | -59.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $49.10 | -50.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $12.09 | -87.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $46.14 | -53.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $24.81 | -74.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $72.05 | -26.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $59.28 | -39.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $49.62 | -49.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $50.83 | -48.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $11.93 | -87.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.01 | -61.3% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 74× | 81× | 88× (Current) | 95× | 102× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (17%) | $96 | $105 | $114 | $123 | $132 |
| Conservative (28%) | $105 | $115 | $125 | $134 | $144 |
| Base Case (42.3%) | $117 | $128 | $139 | $150 | $161 |
| Bull Case (57%) | $129 | $141 | $154 | $166 | $178 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 65.91 | 54.21 | 40.06 | 115.16 | 34.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 50.10 | 31.43 | 28.00 | 83.69 | 28.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.32 | 18.57 | 14.46 | 70.05 | 23.53 |
| P/FCF | 37.91 | 24.86 | 10.08 | 91.83 | 38.35 |
| P/FFO | 45.56 | 31.05 | 16.13 | 118.27 | 38.32 |
| P/TBV | 3.34 | 2.27 | 1.54 | 7.72 | 2.12 |
| P/AFFO | 132.79 | 110.93 | 39.34 | 269.96 | 103.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.08 | 1.95 | 1.06 | 4.12 | 1.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.65 | 1.55 | 0.65 | 2.44 | 0.74 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GHM's fair value at $38.01 vs the current price of $98.19, implying -61.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.15 (P10) to $49.20 (P90), with a median of $40.75.
GHM's current P/E of 88.5x compares to the industry median of 44.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +100.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 65.9x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
4 analysts cover GHM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $80.00 (range: $80.00 — $80.00), implying -18.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 6.3% is 6.4 percentage points above the 4-year average (1.3%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$15. (2) Multiple compression: GHM trades at the 9180th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (65.9×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GHM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (1.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8520.0% to approximately $15. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.