MODEL VERDICT
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (GILT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $18.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $17.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $19.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $18.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $17.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 1 analyst estimates | $17.73 | -4.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $13.50 | -26.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $11.84 | -35.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $4.29 | -76.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $11.64 | -37.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $7.23 | -60.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $41.19 | +122.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $31.00 | +67.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $12.11 | -34.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $3.32 | -82.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.06 | -23.9% | 100% | 83 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 46× | 50× | 54× (Current) | 58× | 62× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
| Conservative (5%) | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
| Base Case (-11.6%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Bull Case (-16%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.88 | 13.98 | 10.35 | 38.06 | 11.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 114.48 | 16.06 | 7.83 | 699.34 | 258.10 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.18 | 10.40 | 5.81 | 24.37 | 6.65 |
| P/FCF | 30.22 | 16.40 | 9.43 | 85.10 | 28.93 |
| P/FFO | 23.04 | 9.38 | 7.99 | 57.79 | 21.47 |
| P/TBV | 1.92 | 1.76 | 1.47 | 2.82 | 0.45 |
| P/AFFO | 13.62 | 11.17 | 8.91 | 23.77 | 5.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.15 | 1.74 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.61 | 1.68 | 1.15 | 2.18 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates GILT's fair value at $14.06 vs the current price of $18.48, implying -23.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.52 (P10) to $18.97 (P90), with a median of $13.37.
GILT's current P/E of 54.4x compares to the industry median of 34.8x (1 peers in the group). This represents a +56.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.9x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover GILT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.00 (range: $7.00 — $7.00), implying -62.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GILT trades at the 7140th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GILT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (7.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4590.0% to approximately $10. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.