MODEL VERDICT
Golar LNG Limited (GLNG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $55.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $52.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $51.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $53.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $53.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $13.41 | -75.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $3.96 | -92.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $9.73 | -82.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $4.47 | -92.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $1.58 | -97.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $11.12 | -80.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $9.36 | -83.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.39 | -45.5% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 72× | 79× | 86× (Current) | 93× | 100× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $49 | $53 | $58 | $63 | $68 |
| Conservative (7%) | $50 | $55 | $60 | $64 | $69 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $51 | $56 | $61 | $66 | $72 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $53 | $58 | $63 | $69 | $74 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 49.69 | 57.25 | 3.67 | 88.17 | 42.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 216.84 | 48.36 | 2.72 | 1028.15 | 399.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.29 | 19.05 | 11.63 | 54.05 | 14.19 |
| P/FFO | 196.12 | 37.74 | 3.41 | 705.58 | 340.05 |
| P/TBV | 1.07 | 0.85 | 0.57 | 1.88 | 0.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.07 | 0.85 | 0.57 | 1.88 | 0.55 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.81 | 8.21 | 2.13 | 17.11 | 5.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates GLNG's fair value at $30.39 vs the current price of $55.70, implying -45.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.64 (P10) to $62.28 (P90), with a median of $27.27.
GLNG's current P/E of 85.7x compares to the industry median of 15.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +472.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 49.7x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
48 analysts cover GLNG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $53.00 (range: $50.00 — $56.00), implying -4.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (29), Hold (14), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GLNG trades at the 9720th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (49.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GLNG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (67.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13320.0% to approximately $130. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.