MODEL VERDICT
Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. (GLRE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $19.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $18.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $22.13 | +24.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $29.91 | +68.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $20.65 | +16.5% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $22.13 | +24.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $34.49 | +94.6% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $28.90 | +63.1% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.37 | +43.2% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (33%) | $12 | $17 | $23 | $29 | $35 |
| Conservative (53%) | $13 | $20 | $27 | $33 | $40 |
| Base Case (81.6%) | $16 | $24 | $32 | $39 | $47 |
| Bull Case (110%) | $18 | $27 | $36 | $46 | $55 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.52 | 12.01 | 4.57 | 66.45 | 23.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.88 | 9.73 | 4.42 | 156.69 | 59.61 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.10 | 13.64 | 4.42 | 53.41 | 19.62 |
| P/FCF | 70.83 | 28.64 | 2.39 | 223.64 | 104.52 |
| P/FFO | 23.69 | 15.31 | 12.75 | 43.00 | 16.78 |
| P/TBV | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.77 | 0.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.76 | 0.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.74 | 0.68 | 0.47 | 8.36 | 2.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates GLRE's fair value at $25.37 vs the current price of $17.72, implying +43.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.99 (P10) to $36.39 (P90), with a median of $26.23.
GLRE's current P/E of 8.2x compares to the industry median of 10.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -19.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.5x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
3 analysts cover GLRE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GLRE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 14290.0% to approximately $43. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.