MODEL VERDICT
Corning Incorporated (GLW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $158.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $175.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $164.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $168.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $171.24 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $106.42 | -32.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $77.55 | -51.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $61.85 | -60.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $43.38 | -72.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $81.33 | -48.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $39.53 | -75.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $187.70 | +18.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $90.96 | -42.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $96.71 | -38.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $67.79 | -57.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $47.08 | -70.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $91.27 | -42.3% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 72× | 79× | 86× (Current) | 93× | 100× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $148 | $162 | $177 | $191 | $206 |
| Conservative (18%) | $157 | $173 | $188 | $203 | $219 |
| Base Case (27.9%) | $170 | $187 | $203 | $220 | $237 |
| Bull Case (38%) | $183 | $201 | $219 | $237 | $255 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 45.39 | 44.78 | 20.74 | 81.93 | 22.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.87 | 28.70 | 13.61 | 41.70 | 10.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.22 | 14.55 | 10.33 | 22.84 | 4.62 |
| P/FCF | 116.05 | 42.40 | 17.70 | 594.77 | 211.41 |
| P/FFO | 14.96 | 13.41 | 9.28 | 25.59 | 6.41 |
| P/TBV | 4.08 | 3.09 | 2.65 | 8.22 | 2.01 |
| P/AFFO | 39.61 | 45.34 | 17.96 | 54.98 | 13.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.98 | 2.23 | 2.01 | 6.12 | 1.50 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.71 | 2.27 | 1.93 | 4.82 | 1.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GLW's fair value at $91.27 vs the current price of $158.28, implying -42.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $91.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $61.18 (P10) to $117.83 (P90), with a median of $84.17.
GLW's current P/E of 85.6x compares to the industry median of 33.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +155.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 45.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
37 analysts cover GLW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $143.11 (range: $120.00 — $180.00), implying -9.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (15), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 11.1% is 4.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (6.8%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$52. (2) Multiple compression: GLW trades at the 7810th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (45.4×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GLW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6740.0% to approximately $52. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.