MODEL VERDICT
General Motors Company (GM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $78.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $81.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $81.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $80.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $82.87 | Below threshold | -2.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $85.77 | +9.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $91.24 | +15.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $51.11 | -35.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $155.23 | +97.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $57.42 | -27.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $151.11 | +92.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $199.13 | +153.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $55.11 | -30.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $153.90 | +95.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $94.25 | +19.8% | 100% | 63 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $67 | $73 | $80 | $87 | $93 |
| Conservative (5%) | $69 | $76 | $82 | $89 | $96 |
| Base Case (-5.5%) | $62 | $68 | $74 | $80 | $87 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $61 | $67 | $73 | $79 | $85 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.00 | 8.36 | 4.91 | 24.87 | 6.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.78 | 16.42 | 11.56 | 49.03 | 13.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.08 | 7.22 | 6.73 | 12.66 | 2.09 |
| P/FFO | 3.25 | 3.14 | 2.23 | 5.39 | 1.11 |
| P/TBV | 1.13 | 1.30 | 0.73 | 1.42 | 0.29 |
| P/AFFO | 11.58 | 11.76 | 5.27 | 19.29 | 5.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.03 | 1.15 | 0.68 | 1.31 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.41 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.68 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates GM's fair value at $94.25 vs the current price of $78.71, implying +19.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $94.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $58.85 (P10) to $111.56 (P90), with a median of $84.68.
GM's current P/E of 24.1x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +54.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
51 analysts cover GM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $89.93 (range: $55.00 — $110.00), implying +14.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (30), Hold (15), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GM trades at the 7140th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5230.0% to approximately $120. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.