MODEL VERDICT
General Motors Company (GM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $75.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $78.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $81.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $77.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $76.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $94.94 | +25.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $114.74 | +51.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $45.60 | -39.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $773.48 | +920.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $772.19 | +919.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $178.72 | +135.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $187.55 | +147.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $38.53 | -49.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $115.79 | +52.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $203.28 | +168.3% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $63 | $70 | $77 | $83 | $90 |
| Conservative (5%) | $65 | $72 | $79 | $86 | $93 |
| Base Case (-5.5%) | $59 | $65 | $71 | $77 | $83 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $58 | $64 | $70 | $76 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.00 | 8.36 | 4.91 | 24.87 | 6.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.26 | 18.92 | 13.37 | 64.78 | 18.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.87 | 7.56 | 6.73 | 10.77 | 1.39 |
| P/FFO | 3.13 | 3.12 | 2.23 | 4.58 | 0.87 |
| P/TBV | 1.13 | 1.30 | 0.73 | 1.42 | 0.29 |
| P/AFFO | 17.40 | 11.85 | 5.27 | 53.03 | 16.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.03 | 1.15 | 0.68 | 1.31 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.41 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.68 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates GM's fair value at $203.28 vs the current price of $75.77, implying +168.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $203.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $174.64 (P10) to $313.59 (P90), with a median of $242.95.
GM's current P/E of 23.2x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (2 peers in the group). This represents a +66.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
51 analysts cover GM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $91.75 (range: $59.00 — $110.00), implying +21.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (31), Hold (14), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: GM trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6190.0% to approximately $123. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.