MODEL VERDICT
GameStop Corp. (GME)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $26.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $24.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $24.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $24.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $23.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $22.86 | -13.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $10.83 | -59.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $19.37 | -27.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $17.79 | -32.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $11.87 | -55.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $7.66 | -71.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $19.19 | -27.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.87 | +39.0% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $22 | $25 | $27 | $30 | $32 |
| Conservative (7%) | $23 | $25 | $28 | $30 | $33 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $24 | $27 | $30 | $32 | $35 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 305.96 | 94.97 | 26.08 | 796.82 | 426.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 300.93 | 231.86 | 39.13 | 631.79 | 302.30 |
| P/FCF | 74.01 | 95.45 | 19.22 | 107.37 | 47.82 |
| P/TBV | 3.34 | 2.93 | 0.90 | 6.77 | 1.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.31 | 2.80 | 0.87 | 6.72 | 1.89 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.48 | 1.01 | 0.08 | 3.24 | 1.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates GME's fair value at $36.87 vs the current price of $26.53, implying +39.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.49 (P10) to $94.39 (P90), with a median of $52.02.
GME's current P/E of 34.5x compares to the industry median of 25.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +37.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 306.0x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover GME with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.25 (range: $11.50 — $25.00), implying -31.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (20), Sell (10), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GME.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.