MODEL VERDICT
GameStop Corp. (GME) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $24.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $23.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $23.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $24.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $21.23 | Below threshold | +16.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $21.00 | -12.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $17.77 | -26.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $9.65 | -59.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $7.57 | -68.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $18.35 | -23.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $26.58 | +10.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $12.26 | -49.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $9.65 | -59.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $7.60 | -68.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.44 | -52.4% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 61× | 67× | 73× (Current) | 79× | 85× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Conservative (7%) | $21 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $30 | $32 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 56.91 | 57.34 | 5.58 | 107.37 | 51.92 |
| P/TBV | 3.25 | 2.93 | 0.90 | 6.77 | 1.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.16 | 2.80 | 0.87 | 6.72 | 2.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.07 | 0.95 | 0.08 | 3.24 | 1.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates GME's fair value at $11.44 vs the current price of $24.03, implying -52.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.49 (P10) to $19.55 (P90), with a median of $15.93.
GME's current P/E of 72.8x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +148.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover GME with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.25 (range: $11.50 — $25.00), implying -24.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (20), Sell (10), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GME.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.