MODEL VERDICT
Globus Medical, Inc. (GMED)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $91.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $94.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $95.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $94.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $90.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $75.87 | -16.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $98.96 | +8.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $111.37 | +21.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $85.13 | -6.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $86.17 | -5.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $110.26 | +20.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $273.81 | +199.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $86.82 | -4.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $69.37 | -24.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $111.86 | +22.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $90.96 | -0.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $123.76 | +35.5% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $84 | $93 | $101 | $110 | $119 |
| Conservative (20%) | $90 | $99 | $108 | $118 | $127 |
| Base Case (31.2%) | $98 | $108 | $118 | $129 | $139 |
| Bull Case (42%) | $106 | $117 | $128 | $139 | $150 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 53.71 | 49.80 | 22.27 | 110.28 | 28.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.74 | 32.87 | 18.98 | 54.96 | 12.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.53 | 25.85 | 19.30 | 36.41 | 5.54 |
| P/FCF | 42.95 | 36.97 | 20.35 | 73.01 | 18.48 |
| P/FFO | 29.34 | 29.50 | 18.21 | 39.87 | 7.16 |
| P/TBV | 4.95 | 5.01 | 3.73 | 5.85 | 0.63 |
| P/AFFO | 42.84 | 43.77 | 24.29 | 64.88 | 12.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.42 | 4.13 | 1.53 | 4.37 | 1.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.25 | 7.45 | 3.89 | 8.35 | 1.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GMED's fair value at $123.76 vs the current price of $91.34, implying +35.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $123.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $100.67 (P10) to $127.81 (P90), with a median of $114.04.
GMED's current P/E of 23.3x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -18.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 53.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
36 analysts cover GMED with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $110.67 (range: $100.00 — $115.00), implying +21.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GMED's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7460.0% to approximately $159. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.