MODEL VERDICT
Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $9.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $9.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $9.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $9.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $9.66 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $24.95 | +161.8% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $11.42 | +19.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $11.34 | +19.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.05 | +78.9% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 103.12 | 116.04 | 37.56 | 142.83 | 46.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.18 | 32.98 | 30.01 | 42.44 | 4.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.83 | 13.95 | 5.76 | 30.18 | 7.50 |
| P/FCF | 10.11 | 9.00 | 6.63 | 14.71 | 2.97 |
| P/FFO | 18.03 | 9.19 | 7.08 | 64.99 | 23.04 |
| P/TBV | 1.21 | 1.35 | 0.55 | 1.75 | 0.47 |
| P/AFFO | 9.69 | 9.25 | 8.77 | 11.23 | 1.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.90 | 0.92 | 0.54 | 1.15 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.75 | 3.64 | 2.09 | 5.72 | 1.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates GNL's fair value at $17.05 vs the current price of $9.53, implying +78.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.83 (P10) to $20.48 (P90), with a median of $17.13.
GNL's current P/E of -7.9x compares to the industry median of 28.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -127.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 103.1x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover GNL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.50 (range: $10.00 — $11.00), implying +10.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (7), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GNL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.