MODEL VERDICT
Gentex Corporation (GNTX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $22.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $23.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $22.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $21.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $21.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $19.98 | -12.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $18.45 | -18.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $29.32 | +28.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $25.94 | +14.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $25.98 | +14.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $35.76 | +57.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $5.82 | -74.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $10.61 | -53.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $8.21 | -63.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $29.11 | +28.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $25.67 | +12.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.19 | +37.1% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $16 | $20 | $23 | $27 | $30 |
| Conservative (5%) | $16 | $20 | $24 | $27 | $31 |
| Base Case (4.3%) | $16 | $20 | $24 | $27 | $31 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $17 | $20 | $24 | $28 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.89 | 17.75 | 13.37 | 24.06 | 3.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.54 | 14.68 | 10.76 | 19.63 | 3.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.60 | 12.35 | 8.40 | 15.69 | 2.53 |
| P/FCF | 21.31 | 20.03 | 11.15 | 32.88 | 7.17 |
| P/FFO | 14.72 | 14.38 | 10.43 | 18.28 | 2.75 |
| P/TBV | 4.54 | 4.27 | 2.63 | 6.10 | 1.29 |
| P/AFFO | 19.49 | 20.64 | 14.23 | 23.45 | 3.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.32 | 3.24 | 2.05 | 4.25 | 0.82 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.57 | 3.29 | 2.02 | 4.90 | 1.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates GNTX's fair value at $31.19 vs the current price of $22.75, implying +37.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.72 (P10) to $29.24 (P90), with a median of $26.95.
GNTX's current P/E of 13.1x compares to the industry median of 16.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -22.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.9x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
20 analysts cover GNTX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $26.00 (range: $26.00 — $26.00), implying +14.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that GNTX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10780.0% to approximately $47. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.